Why Nadal's Return Game Transcends Generations

We are not breaking serve like we used to.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players breaking serve over the past 29 years identifies that the most recent season (2019) and the most distant (1991) in the data set sit at polar opposites in overall performance on a statistics table - and not where you would expect.

The data set includes the average of the 20 best performers each season in breaking serve from when statistics were first kept in 1991 to last season. The leading 20 players in 1991 outperformed the season leaders in each of the 28 seasons that followed, breaking serve 32.18 per cent (4,309/13,392) of the time on average.

What was the worst performing season? None other than last year, when the leading 20 players broke serve just 26.19 per cent (3,769/14,315) of the time. We have a preconceived notion that our sport is always improving, always putting up superior numbers than yesteryear, but that’s not always the case. In fact, the leading six seasons are all in the 1990s and the seven worst performing years are all from 2010 onwards.

There has only been one instance where a player has broken the 40 per cent threshold for return games won in a season. That was Rafael Nadal in 2016, where he won a staggering 40.75 per cent (216/530) of his return games. Nadal has been the season leader in return games won a record nine times, with the first coming in 2005. Nadal has been the return games won leader in the past two seasons and five of the past seven seasons.

In 2016, Nadal led the tour in breaking serve from 15/0. He won 27.13 per cent (70/258) of the games where this occurred, which was more than double the tour average of 13.49 per cent (2,891/21,435). It’s just another return metric where he understandably sits at the top of the mountain. The Spaniard has been the ultimate nemesis for the server for well over a decade.

While the leading 20 players performed better breaking serve in the 1990s than in the past decade, Nadal transcends all years and generations with his ability to consistently lead the tour in breaking serve at a rate other players simply can’t compete with.

1991-2019: Average Of The Best 20 Performers Breaking Serve

Year Leading 20 Players Break % Season Leader Season Leader Break %
1991 32.18% M. Gustafsson 36.48%
1994 31.79% A. Berasategui 36.83%
1995 31.68% T. Muster 35.92%
1992 31.28% M. Chang 36.70%
1993 31.27% A. Agassi 37.34%
1996 30.85% M. Chang 35.28%
2003 30.44% G. Coria 38.83%
2005 30.33% R. Nadal 37.54%
1998 29.89% K. Kucera 33.51%
2006 29.67% N. Davydenko 35.41%
1997 29.48% A. Corretja 33.42%
2011 29.36% N. Djokovic 38.84%
1999 29.27% A. Agassi 33.83%
2004 29.26% F. Volandri 37.46%
2001 28.98% L. Hewitt 33.48%
2002 28.94% L. Hewitt 33.06%
2007 28.92% D. Ferrer 36.09%
2016 28.57% R. Nadal 40.75%
2012 28.26% R. Nadal 37.70%
2000 28.15% K. Kucera 31.55%
2009 27.80% R. Nadal 33.56%
2008 27.80% R. Nadal 33.49%
2013 27.45% R. Nadal 33.84%
2010 27.35% J.I. Chela 32.22%
2018 27.01% R. Nadal 36.55%
2014 26.57% R. Nadal 34.97%
2017 26.57% D. Schwartzman 34.76%
2015 26.46% N. Djokovic 34.44%
2019 26.19% R. Nadal 34.97%


from Tennis - ATP World Tour https://ift.tt/2TYxTTL

No comments

Theme images by Jason Morrow. Powered by Blogger.